The Edit — Deals
How to Spot a Fake Black Friday Discount
A discount is a claim about the past — that the thing used to cost more. US and Canadian law both say what that claim has to be worth, and the percentage on the badge is the last place to look for it.
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Black Friday falls on 27 November 2026, and Cyber Monday on 30 November. By then most of what you see marked down will carry two numbers: a price, and a higher price with a line through it. The second number is the one doing the persuading, and it is the one nobody checks.
The discount is a claim about the past
A price cut asserts a historical fact — that the item was sold at the higher figure and is now sold for less. That is a factual claim, not an opinion, which is why both the US and Canada regulate it as advertising rather than leaving it to taste.
The current price is checkable in a second. The former price is not, and a badge reading “45% off” makes an assertion about it without ever showing you the evidence.
What the FTC requires of a “was” price
Under 16 CFR §233.1, a former price is only usable if it was the actual price at which the item was openly and actively offered for sale, for a reasonably substantial period, in the recent and regular course of business.
Three parts of that sentence do the work. Openly and actively offered rules out a price that existed only on paper. A reasonably substantial period rules out the price that appeared for a fortnight in October so that November could be a sale. Recent and regular course of business rules out a figure from two years ago.
The FTC guides are not themselves law, but they set out how the agency reads Section 5 of the FTC Act, and state consumer-protection statutes largely track them.
Canada runs two tests instead of one
Paragraphs 74.01(2) and 74.01(3) of the Competition Act set an ordinary-selling-price standard with two limbs, and a retailer only has to pass one.
The volume test asks whether a substantial volume was sold at that price or higher within a reasonable period. The time test asks whether the item was offered in good faith at that price or higher for a substantial period. A product that sat unsold at $400 for months can therefore be advertised down from $400 lawfully, even though nobody ever paid it.
That is the gap worth knowing about. A price can be entirely legal and still tell you nothing about what the item is worth.
A list price is not a former price
16 CFR §233.3 covers prices set or suggested by the manufacturer, and it treats them as a separate case for a reason. An MSRP describes what a brand would like the item to sell for. It is not a record of what anyone charged.
Where a category sells habitually below list — mattresses, jewellery, luggage, small kitchen appliances — the list price functions as a permanent reference number that no shop has used in years. On marketplaces the reference figure is more often computed from recent selling history than supplied by the brand, which is an improvement, though it still says nothing about whether the item is worth having.
Check the price, not the percentage
Look up what the item has actually cost over the past year. Amazon price history is public through tools such as CamelCamelCamel and Keepa, both of which chart the selling price by date, and 60 seconds is enough to settle the question.
Three shapes show up:
- A flat line that steps down in November. A real cut.
- A sawtooth that touches the sale price every six weeks. Not a sale, a cycle. It will be back at this price by mid-January.
- A line that rises through October and falls on the 27th. The former price was manufactured to be discounted from.
The same reasoning applies outside the November window, and we set out the wider timing pattern in when accessories actually go on sale.
Four patterns that mean walk away
The percentage without a price. “Up to 70% off” attaches to one item in the range, usually the one nobody wanted.
A countdown clock that resets. Genuine stock limits do not renew at midnight.
A model number one character off. Derivative models built for a sale event carry a different SKU, a thinner panel or a smaller battery. The comparison to last year’s review does not hold, which is a recurring pattern in televisions — see the 2024 television deals for how that plays out.
A former price in a currency or region you are not in. Cross-border reference pricing is common on marketplace listings and is close to meaningless.
What an honest discount looks like
An honest discount is boring: a specific model, a price lower than its 90-day low, and no clock. Laptops and televisions genuinely do fall in late November because manufacturers clear inventory ahead of the spring refresh, which is why the laptop deals and the television category are worth watching while handbags and cookware mostly are not.
If the price history is flat, the discount is real. If it is a sawtooth, wait six weeks and pay the same money in January without the queue.